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Top 10 Tips for Betting the Derby

The Kentucky Derby is an animal all its own. Here are some tips to get you started on your Derby picks.

1. FAVORITES ARE NO SURE THING
There have only been two favorites since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979 to wear the garland of roses. Fusaichi Pegasus was the favorite in 2000 and Smarty Jones in 2004. So don’t get too scared of the favorite.

2. WATCH THE BEYER SPEED FIGURE
Most Derby winners had posted at least a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in a Derby prep race.

3. TRY AN EXOTIC WAGER
With the big fields on Derby and Oaks day, you can win just as much on an Exacta as you usually could on a Trifecta, so if you are usually a Win Place Show bettor, the Derby is a good time to try out an Exotic.

4. LOOK FOR A HORSE WHO CAN RATE
If there are many horses in the race who are known for being front runners, you might want to look for a horse who can rate, or relax just off the pace and then take them all in the end.

5. LOOK AT BLUEGRASS STAKES WINNERS
If you liked a horse going into the Bluegrass Stakes and it did not perform as well as expected, don’t despair. Only 2 Bluegrass winners have won the Derby since 1979 Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Strike the Gold in 1991. Over that same time frame, 5 Bluegrass also-rans have won the Run for the Roses: Gato Del Sol (1982); Alysheba (1987); Unbridled (1990); Sea Hero (1993) and Thunder Gulch (1995).

6. STAMINA IS IMPORTANT
It is important to figure out which contenders will have the stamina to make the 1 1/4 mile distance. This is the biggest question mark for this race because none of the horses have yet to race that far. Most handicappers attribute the horse’s pedigree and running style as the primary signs of one that will get the Classic distance.

7. A FAMILIAR SURFACE
Give extra consideration to horses who have had success on the Churchill Downs surface previously.

8. CHOSE A HORSE WITH A GOOD BASE
Horses should have run in at least 3 spring prep races before the Derby to be prepared for the competition. No amount of speed or good looks can make up for a lack of seasoning in the Spring. For a horse to win the Derby, he must have a good base.

9. DON'T FAVOR BREEDER'S CUP JUVENILE WINNERS TOO MUCH
Horses that are super good as 2-year-olds are usually not competitive by the time Derby comes around. That’s why some people tend to discard the winners of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.

10. A GOOD JOCKEY MATTERS
Keep an eye on who the top jockeys choose to ride. Jockeys like John Velazquez or Edgar Prado ride first call for some of the most powerful stables.

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