Playing To Win

ADVANCED BETTING TECHNIQUES

“Pittsburgh Phil” was a legendary horseplayer in the 1920's. He knew how to win and amassed considerable wealth without the drudgery of honest labor. One statement he made has stood the test of time, "Winning is 25% handicapping and 75% betting". That may come as news to those who think they can do well over time by simply becoming an expert handicapper. No matter how hard we might try, nor how obvious things may seem, the horses simply don't cooperate often enough for anyone to do well financially by simply trying to find the winner.

One of the nice things about racing is that we can do quite well while being wrong most of the time. Racing isn’t alone in that respect. The best hitters in baseball make an out about twice as often as they get a hit. Home run kings strike out much more frequently than they hit one out of the park. Then why should we racing fans go about things as if winning each and every race is of the utmost importance? It isn’t a test of our intelligence. It is a horse race during which any number of things can go wrong to confound the best of handicappers.

Effective betting recognizes that the key to doing well financially at the races is effectively managing risk. Every time we buy a ticket we are assuming the risk that it will prove to be worthless. Good bettors use their handicapping skill to estimate just how much risk that entails and then make sure that the potential reward is enough to justify those risks. It doesn’t matter how strongly we believe that a certain horse will win. The only sound reason for backing him is that we think that his chances are better than the odds being offered suggest.

If we conclude that one horse isn’t getting the betting respect that he deserves, we should bet him! It doesn’t really matter whether his odds are 6-5 or 100-1. How we bet is important. Most prefer to bet a favorite to “win only” because his place and show mutuels figure to be small. They are much more likely to bet a horse with generous odds “across the board” (win, place, and show.) Due to the way that place and show mutuels are computed (the shorter priced horse dilutes the higher priced horse’s mutuel), we believe that they have things backwards.

We find it difficult to recommend “show” betting in any circumstances (except as part of a show parlay). A favorite or nearfavorite’s place mutuel is usually small but so is the risk. Besides, it often isn’t much less than his win mutuel, so when the horse wins a $2 win-place bet will often return almost as much as a $4 win bet. Backing up a longshot with a place bet isn’t such a good idea because the place mutuel usually isn’t enough to justify the greater risk assumed even though it seems large (particularly if he doesn’t share the pool with the favorite or a near favorite.) That means that anytime the longshot wins, we have sacrificed quite a bit for the added protection.

Managing risk is equally as important when we are playing the gimmicks. When constructing our gimmick bets we should remember the horses are running against each other and the favorite generally wears a target. The other well meant horses will go all out to beat him and may tire if they are unable to get the job done (particularly in lower and medium class races). That means that the second favorite may be more likely to beat the favorite than he is to run second behind him. Should the favorite appear clearly superior to the others, a longshot is apt to run second or third. That is because he had no illusions about winning and was running for second or third from the moment the gate opened. These principles aren’t as valid in higher class races because the horses are more capable of running well in adverse circumstances.

Some players use the gimmicks in an attempt to convert a horse they think is an underlay into an overlay. This is seldom possible. If a horse is in an underlay in one pool, he is generally an underlay in all the pools. Combining him with an overlay simply contaminates the overlay and results in a “trading dollars” bet at best. It is much better to pass the race or play around the underlay. The tote board is always “in balance” so if one horse is an underlay, others must be overlays.

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312-Advanced Betting

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• Parlay Type Gimmicks
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