Playing To Win

CLASS DROPS

The term “class dropper” is commonly used to describe any horse who is running at a level lower than his previous race. Many are very good plays, but others are traps. Not much happens around a race track without a solid reason. Understanding why a horse is probably dropping is often the key to separating the two.

Horses are said to have class equal to the level at which they have recently proven they can race competitively. A maiden may have “class potential” based upon his breeding, but until he actually runs a solid race he really has no class. A maiden who drops in class after running in his only race is usually not a very good play unless he is owned by his trainer or breeder. There is a very good chance that the maiden’s trainer didn’t believe that the horse belonged in the stronger race but entered him in it at the urging of his owner. Given a dose of reality the owner now agrees a class drop but may resist dropping him far enough to allow him to contend.

The situation is different when a maiden drops after being given two or three chances to prove that he belongs at the higher level. Now it is much less likely that the horse was in the stronger races simply to keep the owner happy. The trainer was with him every day leading up to his debut and probably thought that he was capable of competing in the stronger race. The subsequent drop is an admission of sorts that he was mistaken but the softer competition might be just what the horse needs to bring out the potential that trainer saw earlier. Any spark of competitiveness (racing forwardly for half the race or a move at any point in a race) at the higher level is a big plus for the maiden dropper, but we have seen some completely reverse form after showing virtually nothing in the stronger races.

Once a horse breaks his maiden he is forced to race against others with a maiden win. It is quite understandable for an owner to overate his horse after he watches his horse win his first race. He has just seen him at his best and might insist that he be given a chance to race against horses that his trainer thinks are too tough. If he drops after only one race at the higher level we wouldn’t be too impressed. Given two or three chances, however, it becomes much more likely that it was the trainer who thought the horse could compete at the higher level. The situation is very similar to what existed before the horse won his maiden race.

Once a horse establishes his class it doesn’t remained fixed in stone. Some improve as they mature or refine their racing skills and move up in class while others go the other direction as racing takes its toll. Those who drop after a prolonged “slump” are usually not very good plays. They aren’t the horse they once were and have must find a new class level. The first drop often doesn’t get the job done. Once these types begin dropping it often takes several drops before they become competitive. The biggest “trap” among the droppers, however, is the horse who just won or almost won and doesn’t appear to need a drop. They are dropping for a reason, however, and often it is because they aren’t as good as they appear. These types do win but are almost always serious underlays.

Particularly in lesser races some trainers still believe in running a horse into winning form. Either to discourage a claim or to darken his form (so they can later cash a bet at nice odds) this may be done at a claiming level that is a notch or two above the level at which they intend to win. Spotting these plays takes some detective work but is worth the effort. Was the horse given a class hike recently that didn’t appear justified by his previous races? The class hike becomes very suspect if a negative jockey switch accompanied the step up, or if it followed a period of inactivity. Particularly, if the horse is given a couple of works before dropping or is given a positive jockey switch (to a jockey who has won or almost won with him, has a close relationship with the trainer, or is among the leaders at the meet) he is probably out to win and a very good play.

Other droppers who are often good plays include:

1. Those who ran evenly in their last race so long as they beat at least half the field.
2. Horses who gave a strong hint their last time no matter where they finished. Strong hints include horses who showed unusual (for them) early speed or who gained at least three lengths between any two points of call while passing at least two horses.
3. Those who faltered after battling for the early lead, particularly if the pace was quick.
4. Any one level drop by a horse who looks particularly well meant (multiple works and/or a positive jockey switch.)

Play a Game

• -Life Cycle

309-Class Handicapping

• Class Structure
• Class Rises
• Class Drops