Playing To Win

CLASS RISES

Class rises can be segregated into two broad groups. Some are “involuntary” because they are mandated by the conditions and restrictions of a race they just won. A horse who just broke his maiden, for example, cannot run in another maiden race, so he is forced to step up to a race for non-winners of two. Other horses are stepped up in class simply because their connections want him to face stronger opposition. The reasons for such “voluntary” class rises govern whether the move should be considered a positive or a negative from a handicapping standpoint. Unfortunately, they are seldom apparent.

Horses are not computer chips! They are living breathing animals and like their human counterparts can and usually do improve as they gain maturity and experience. For these reasons improving three year olds (and lightly raced four year olds) are among the best plays in racing. The public tends to judge them based upon their past performances but since they are improving better performances should be expected. Class rises often pose no problem to these types. It doesn’t really matter whether the rise was voluntary or not.

Other horses may also be good bets when stepped up in class. A horse who just won a cheap maiden claimer may not have much ability, but he has at least demonstrated that he is “in form”. Asked to run against cheap non-winners of two claimers he may find that he is the only one whose form can’t be questioned. The same holds true after a horse wins a cheap non-winner of two and is forced to face those who have won two races. The moves are class rises due to the changing conditions even though the claiming prices remain are same. At the other end of the class spectrum talented lightly raced horses horse are often able to climb the “allowance ladder” rather quickly. Impressive winners along the way should be given respect.

Claimers who step up in class after a dominating win are generally good plays. Their connections were probably impressed by their performance and believe that they are capable of winning again for a larger purse. The motives for stepping up a horse after a hard fought win are suspect, however. The race may have been hard on him, and his connections may have no illusions about his being able to win his next race. He is stepped up in class, however, to discourage a claim while he runs a conditioner designed to get him ready for a winning effort in the race to follow.

The betting public usually discounts the chances of horses that step up after losing. They simply don’t understand how a horse who couldn’t win a $10,000 claimer could be expected to step up and win one at the $13,500 level. This makes him a very good longshot, if we have reason to believe that his connections were not simply stepping him up to darken his form, or discourage a claim, while running him into winning form (when he will presumably be dropped back in class.)

Horses who lost but gave a strong hint fit the longshot scenario. The best strong hint is a burst of speed that the horse doesn’t normally display. It can come at the beginning when he surprisingly contests the pace, during the race’s middle stages when he rallies and passes at least two horses while gaining three lengths on the leaders, or at the end when he finishes much stronger than usual. Another situation that produces good longshots is a horse is given a class hike that doesn’t appear warranted by his past performances after being rested. The rest may have cured what ailed him.

An important thing to remember when playing a horse who is voluntarily stepping up in class is that we are really betting on his trainer’s judgement. If he is a fellow who seldom if ever wins we should probably think twice.

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• -Life Cycle

309-Class Handicapping

• Class Structure
• Class Rises
• Class Drops