302 - Off Tracks
"Off" or "wet" tracks refer to a dirt track rated anything other than "fast". These conditions tend to create added uncertainty, but they also can be rewarding with large payoffs. There are several factors that add to the uncertainty of off tracks:
- Only a small percentage of races are run on off tracks, providing limited history to make decisions from. Some horses have never run on off tracks.
- A percentage of horses improve on off tracks
- A percentage of horses decline dramatically on off tracks
- Off tracks often are biased in one way or another
Off tracks give many handicappers lots of trouble. Much of this difficulty is caused by misunderstandings. They look for a horse that has run well on similar tracks and assume that he will run well again. Horses that ran poorly are discounted. In our opinion, this approach is deeply flawed. It assumes there was a cause and effect relationship between how the horse ran and the fact the track was "off". That may or may not have been the case. About 80%-90% of horses handle both wet and dry tracks the same. Only a few move way up over off tracks, and those who can't handle them at all are often scratched. Most horses that ran well on an earlier wet track should not be expected to repeat their performance unless they are just as fit, well-placed and well-meant as they were before. Similarly, bad performances on wet tracks when a horse was not as 100% fit, poorly placed, or not particularly well meant should not be interpreted as suggesting he can't handle an off track in different circumstances.
Three tips for playing off tracks:
- Study the horse's previous performances on off tracks.
- Compare his odds on off tracks to his performances.
- Look to see if he has run well on an off track at this racetrack.
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