Playing To Win

302 - Off Tracks continued

Start by looking at the odds of the prior off track performance. The odds give a good indication how fit, well placed and well meant the horse was in the prior race. That should be considered a general indication, however, as bettors have been known to be wrong. For example, just because a horse was a badly beaten favorite over a wet track doesn't conclusively prove anything. He might have been a badly beaten favorite even if the track were fast. Perhaps he got caught up in an unexpected speed duel or failed to get an anticipated easy lead. So long as he ran about as well as would be expected in those circumstances we should be reluctant to conclude that his disappointing finish was caused by a wet track.

Even if a horse at long odds runs surprisingly well on an off track it doesn't mean he "moved up" because of an off track. Longshots run much better than expected every day when the track is fast. A good race over an off track does suggest, however, that he can handle an off track. In fact, any first, second, or third-place finish suggests that a horse can handle at least some off tracks even thought he has run poorly over them on several occasions.

Common dirt track ratings:
Fast	A normal track
Good	Almost fast. The moisture has nearly dried out.
Wet-fast	A watery-wet track that horses skip over.
Sloppy	Water, puddles and mud.
Muddy	After a sloppy has started to dry out and thicken
Slow	After a muddy track has thickened and dried out

The wet history contained in the program and Daily Racing Form contains worthwhile information, but like any statistic it can be misleading. Often the horse hasn't run over an off track enough times to give the wet data the validity necessary for it to be used as a basis for general conclusions. Any statistic with a small sample should be considered suspect. The fact that a horse is 2 for 2 over off tracks can lead us astray. Perhaps he is a speed horse that got to the front each time over a sloppy track that favored those on the lead. That won't help him much if he is in a field where he is too slow to make the lead, or if today's track favors those coming from behind. Instead a closer whose wet history indicates he hasn't hit the board in 2 or 3 off track races might be the one to beat. Perhaps he hadn't done so well earlier because he was at a significant disadvantage.

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