Playing To Win

LONE SPEED

Any horse who is quick enough to gain a clear lead early and relax while maintaining it to the stretch, without urging, is very tough to beat. It doesn't really matter how long the race might be. Once they hit the top of the stretch it becomes a two furlong sprint and the speedster has a head start. Since he got there without being extended, he is apt to have enough energy left to stay in front in the dash to the wire. That piece of wisdom is hardly a secret. It is one of the first things that most learn about handicapping.

That doesn't mean that every horse who appears capable of attaining such a tactical advantage is a good play, however. Appearing to be a race's "lone speed" and actually becoming a race's "lone speed" are two different things. Many horses have much more speed than their past performance's suggest. They may be quick enough to contest the early pace but prefer not to use their speed early as a matter of style. Instead, the save for later in the race when the leaders begin to weaken.

In most races that is good strategy, but what should they do when it appears that one horse is the "lone speed"? In most instances it will depend on what they think of the potential "lone speed" horse. If they fear him, there is a good chance that they will change tactics and show their "hidden speed" early. The net result is that the "lone speed" horse is not alone, and his chances to win are greatly diminished. Should the "lone speed" horse's stamina be questionable, however, the chances are that the "hidden speed" won't bother to change their tactics. Why use up energy early pressing a horse who probably can't win anyhow?

These tactical considerations have led us to two conclusions:

1. Potential lone speed horses are generally underlays at short odds unless we think they are capable of winning even if they are pressured early.
2. Horses with early speed are among the best long shots in racing. Even when they don't appear to be quick enough to become the "lone speed" in the race, the others may allow them to get an "easy lead" because they are not feared.

The first horse to challenge a horse who has been on an "easy lead" is at a disadvantage compared to those who make their run later. That is true because the leader will usually fight back draining the first challenger of energy that he will need to hold off those who make their run later. That generally doesn't bother a clear-cut favorite who doesn't fear the horses behind him. He makes his move when he pleases. Should the race not contain a horse that appears to be clearly superior to the others there is a good chance that a "you first, Alfonso" scenario will develop. Each potential challenger will wait for the another to make his move until it is too late for anyone to catch the long shot leader.

Two of the best potential "lone speed" horses are those who have been tiring badly after pressing the early leader (or after setting the early pace while being pressured) and those who are switching to a route after racing forwardly in a sprint.

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• -Life Cycle

306-Pace Handicapping

• Pace
• Lone Speed