Playing To Win

PACE

The stretch run may be the most exciting part of a race, but the run to the stretch may be more important. That’s because thoroughbreds, like humans, do have limited energy. Most (if not all) cannot run “full throttle” for more than about a quarter of a mile without tiring badly. How wisely a horse utilizes those limited energy reserves generally dictates how effectively he will run.

In the early part of a race (the “pacing” portion) horses trade energy for position with the idea of getting to the top of the stretch in position to win with enough energy left to get the job done. It’s a balancing act. One without the other isn’t good enough. A ten length lead may not be safe if a horse is so tired that he can barely walk to the wire. Conversely a “full tank: won’t do him much good if he is so far behind that he can’t possibly catch the leaders.

Conventional handicapping wisdom suggests that a fast pace favors the closers. That isn’t always the case, however. It doesn’t help them much unless it causes the leaders to tire. Many quality horses are capable running under control and finishing well despite fast fractions. They may appear to be dueling but in reality they are simply running side-by-side. Some lesser animals can relax while setting a fast pace and save plenty of energy for the stretch run so long as they aren’t pressured.

Horses who weaken or tire after pressing or contesting a very quick fast pace are often much better than they appear. They may appear to lack stamina, but that isn’t necessarily the case. It may simply be a case of the pressure and the faster than normal pace taking their toll. That is particularly true with lightly raced horses and those of moderate or lesser ability. How much they tired in the stretch is generally irrelevant. Just like your car can’t run without gas, a horse can’t run without energy. Brought back in better circumstances they may be able conserve energy early and surprise their detractors by finishing strong enough to win.

A slow pace doesn’t help the early leaders unless they capitalize on it by saving energy. That doesn’t always happen. A slow contentious pace can be tiring, particularly to horses a bit short on class. The pressure causes them expend energy without forward purpose and they are apt to tire despite a slow pace. Others simply haven’t learned to relax and squander the energy that they will need later. Some racing surfaces, particularly turf course, are tiring in nature so that the front runners weaken despite what appears to be a slow or moderate pace.

Pace may not make the race, but it sure plays an important role.

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306-Pace Handicapping

• Pace
• Lone Speed