Playing To Win

SITUATIONAL HANDICAPPING (ANGLES)

Most handicapping methods are designed to compare the attributes of the various horses entered in a race. 'Angle' players generally don't care much about the other horses. They are simply looking for a horse that fits a pattern suggesting that he may run much better than most expect. Whether that will be good enough to win is impossible to judge because they have no way of knowing how much improvement might be forthcoming.

Rather than worry about it, 'angle' players simply trust that the horse's trainer has entered him in a winnable race. They realize the he knows the horse better than anyone else an is in a much better position to judge his abilities than they are. Since they are trusting his judgement, they insist that he has their respect. That doesn't mean that he must be among the meet's leading trainers, but he shouldn't be a fellow who seldom wins. Their judgement is suspect.

Playable angles are not mere statistical quirks. Instead, they are based upon factors not fully understood, nor appreciated, by the betting public. As a result the 'angle' horse doesn't attract the betting support that he probably deserves. That makes him an overlay and betting the overlays is the key to success over time at the races. Among the better angles are:

1. Rested horse takes a unexpected class rise - Horses aren't rested without reason. Often it is due to a physical problem that was preventing them from running their best. Once the problem is behind them they are capable of showing vast improvement over their previous races. This is one of the best longshot angles around.

2. First route by sprinter with 'secondary' speed - Sprinters who falter after racing near the front may simply need more distance to show their best. That seems ridiculous but it is true because the pace in routes is not as fast and stamina is more related to pace than distance. The softer pace allows them to distribute their energy more effectively. That is particularly true if they are able to make the early lead and control the pace.

3. Class drop by maiden with 'prompting' speed - A maiden who falters after prompting the early pace may be much better than his final position suggests. It could be that he has simply been unable to relax and is using up too much of his energy early. If his trainer believes that to be the case he will often drop him a notch in class in the hope that a softer pace will bring out his best.

4. Added distance with blinkers 'off” - It is widely understood that a horse often shows much more early speed after adding blinkers. That is true because the blinkers channel his attention forwardly. What isn't so widely known is that a horse is often better able to relax without the blinkers. A more relaxed horse will find it easier to get the distance.

5. Dominant claiming winner steps up - Some always worry about whether a horse who is stepping up in class is good enough to handle the tougher competition, so they are seldom given the betting respect they deserve (even when favored.) If the class rise was voluntary, and not simply because he was running in a conditional race (a non winner of two, for example), the horse's trainer apparently believes that the horse is up to the task. If we respect him we should respect his judgement.

6. Class rise, or on level drop, following a strong hint - Any burst of energy during any part of a race is a strong hint that a horse is coming into top form and that a better overall effort will follow. It could come at the start when a horse who generally races off the pace makes or presses the early lead, or when he gains at least three lengths on the leader while passing at least two horses between any two calls. A class rise following such a hint suggests that the trainer is impressed and expects much better while a one level drop may be designed to insure a win.

7. Maiden claimer first starter bred and owned by his trainer - Most avoid first starters in maiden claimers reasoning that if the horse was good enough to win his connections could not have resisted the temptation to give him a chance to at the bigger purse money offered in special weights races. Generally that is valid reasoning, but it doesn't apply when a horse is owned and was bred by his capable trainer. He has owned him since birth and has a considerable investment to recoup, so there is no point in wasting a race or two by overmatching him. This is a very good longshot angle, particularly with three and four year old maidens.

Playable angles should not be confused with statistical 'quirks. The difference is that to be playable we must understand why a horse is apt to show improvement that is being overlooked by the betting public..

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