Playing To Win

SPEED NUMBER HANDICAPPING

Speed number handicapping became very popular in the early 1990's when it was championed by the ill-fated Racing Times. Much of its popularity is due to its simplicity. It is easy to learn and it only takes a few minutes to handicap a race. Speed numbers have become a part of virtually all past performances published. They are simply a numerical measure of how fast a horse ran that is more consistant than actual times. Actual times can be deceiving because track conditions vary from day to day. A 1:11 over six furlongs on one day might be very quick while on another it might be a bit on the dull side. That is true even though the track might be rated as “fast” on both days.

Speed numbers are computed as follows:

1. A par time (or average) is established by class for each distance run. These are the average times for each class level at the distance.
2. A variant for the day is established by accumulating the difference between that’s day’ actual times and the individual par times for those races and dividing that total by the number of races run. Separate variants for dirt and turf races, sprints and routes are generally computed.
3. The actual time of a race is then corrected by applying the variant which is then converted into a speed number based upon a table constructed for the purpose. This becomes the winner’s speed number. The others in the race are assigned numbers based upon how far behind the winner they finished.

There are a number of technical reasons why these numbers are not absolutely accurate. Even their strongest adherents agree that a one or two point difference doesn’t mean very much.

There are several ways to use the numbers. Some simply back the horse who ran the higest number in his last race. One race often doesn’t mean very much, however, so others use a horse’s average number for his last three or four races. The problem with that method is that the horse will usually run well but will often be beaten by a horse who “jumps up” and runs a big number. Both methods will select quite a few winners but the odds will be generally short. Using the highest number that each horse has run in any race run in the last 60 days will produce less winners, but those winners will pay much better mutuels.

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