Playing To Win

SYSTEMS AND COMPUTER GENERATED HANDICAPPING

Over the years thousands of various 'systems' have been devised in man's never ending quest to "beat the horses". The systems vary in the weight given to the various factors it considers (speed number, earnings, win percentage, last race result, etc.) but have one thing in common. None that we know of has proven to be successful over time. The reason is simple. Racing is too complex to be reduced to a standard mathematical formula.

Computer handicapping programs are nothing more than the old-fashioned systems that have been automated. Granted, computers are capable of processing huge amounts of information in lightning speed so the systems can be much more sophisticated, but they are incapable of subjective reasoning so the same fatal flaw still exists. It is simply can't take into account the nuances that separate the successful handicapper from those who don't do so well. It may know that a trainer is changing jockeys, for example, but it doesn't understand its significance. Not all changes to a higher-ranking rider are positive.

Should a successful system ever be devised, it is a pretty good bet that we won't hear about it. That's because widespread knowledge of its ability would negate its effectiveness. Everybody wants a winner so the horses the system selected would be bet down to the point that they would become underlays. It would still generate the same number of winners, but the mutuels won wouldn't be sufficient to make the user a winner over time.

Despite their shortcomings, there is a place for good computer programs in the successful handicapper's arsenal. The idea is to modify their conclusions for the things it was unable to consider. For example, the computer might say that "Sureshot" was the horse to back in a particular race not realizing that the trainer would be unlikely to make the jockey change that he was making, if he was of the same opinion. In other words, the computer's conclusions should be used as simply another tool in our deliberations.

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