Playing To Win

HANDICAPPING THE TOTE BOARD

As they say “money talks” and the tote board has a lot to say. Its most important function, of course, is to let us know about what we might expect should any particular horse win, but it can also give us clues to which horse might be the best backed in terms of its risk-reward. In fact there are those who base all of their handicapping decisions on what the tote board is telling them.

Some place emphasis on the early money, others the late money while another group studies the board intently looking for abnormal action that suggests that a big bet has been made. We don’t subscribe to any of those methods at least at major racing centers because the pools are too large for the “smart money” to be easily spotted. It seems to us that those who use those methods are “playing follow the leader” without knowing who the leader might be. Everybody wants the winner so the tote board can create its own momentum which is tough to distinguish from the insider’s plays. Besides, the big players know that others are watching, and they can easily disguise their action by spacing out their bets.

The tote board’s better tips are more subtle. The following four can often provide worthwhile information:

1 - Second half of a daily double: This is a very effective method of finding an overlay (a horse with a better chance to win than his win odds suggest) in the last half of any daily double whenever a shorter priced horse wins the first half. At some point before the race the “will pays” will be posted disclosing how much the double will pay if each horse wins. The horse with the lowest “will pay” mutuel is the favorite in the double and is probably and overlay if he isn’t also the favorite in the actual win betting on the race. The idea is that those with “live” double tickets aren’t bothering to bet him because of their live double ticket. Had the race not been part of the double his odds would have been lower.

2 - Win pools compared to place and show pools: Most professionals and insiders bet to win only. Some back their win bet up with a smaller place bet but few if any ever bet to show. That means that we can sometimes get an idea of what they are doing by comparing the amount of money bet on a horse in the win pool with that in the place and show pools. If a horse attracts about the same percentage of the total money being in each pool there is no information to be gained but if the amounts are disproportionate we have a clue that most will miss. Should 25% of the win pool be bet on one particular horse but that same horse is attracting a significantly smaller percentage of the place and show action, we can assume that his backing is coming from strong players. We may not want to follow their lead but we’d be careful before betting against them. Should the opposite be the case it is likely that the professionals and insiders are not impressed by his chances.

3 - When a horse is bet down to 6-5 or lower: This situation arises when a horse who is about 2-1 in the morning line is bet down to 6-5 or lower. The tote board is always in mathematical balance so when one horse receives much more backing than expected, the odds on the other horses in the aggregate must go up. Look for a horse whose odds are holding steady or even dropping a bit. There is a strong probability that much of his backing is coming from strong players. They see all the action on the favorite and don’t really care. That idea is reinforced, of course, if a disproportionate amount of the wagering on him is to win.

4 - First starters: How strongly a first starter is bet is often, but not always, a reflection of his barn’s opinion of him. The public doesn’t have much to base their decisions on when it comes to first starters, so it should come as no surprise when those sent postward by a leading trainer or ridden by a top rider receive considerable support. The same holds true for those with an impressive string of workouts. When a first starter receives solid backing for no apparent reason, however, we should take notice. There is a reason for virtually everything that happens around a race track and in this case it is likely that the insiders like him.

Don’t be discouraged if he runs poorly. Many first starters don’t show their true ability their first time out. He will still be a good bet his next time out when his odds will probably be better.

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